Economic and environmental impacts of PPCerrado policy using the Brazilian Land Use Model – BLUM

Deforestation in the Cerrado has occurred in 48% of the biome area, mostly due to the land’s allocation to agricultural activities. The Brazilian federal government, seeking to reduce the deforestation rate, launched the “Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Cerrado” (PPCerrado) in 2009-2010, in order to achieve the goals laid out in the Climate Change National Plan (PNMC). The main instrument proposed in the plan is to create preserved areas (conservation units), targeting 10% of the biome area for preservation. This paper measured the environmental and socio-economic impacts of the creation of preserved areas in the Cerrado as indicated in the PPCerrado. We used the Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM) and simulated three scenarios changing the available and suitable land for agricultural expansion based on the priority for conservation (restricting the available land that could be converted to agricultural use): the first one considering business as usual scenario, BAU; the second one considering only the areas considered as extremely high priority for conservation, LPR1; the third one summing all the areas classified as high, very high and extremely high priority for conservation according to the PPCerrado, LRP2. Both scenarios simulated using land availability restrictions (excluding areas with priority for conservation) presented the following impacts, compared to the baseline scenario in 2020: decreased total cropland, high level of pasture intensification, higher commodity prices, and increased deforestation in other biomes, especially the Amazon region.