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Imperfect Knowledge, Temporal Instability and an Uncertainty Premium: Towards a Resolution of the Excess-Returns Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market

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Author Info
Roman Frydman (New York University)
Michael D. Goldberg (University of New Hampshire and Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
Abstract

This paper offers a refinement and explores a resolution of the excess-returns puzzle in the foreign exchange market. We find that the predictions of the forward premium are not negatively biased throughout the three decades of floating, as commonly believed, but rather are sometimes positively biased, negatively biased, unbiased or possess no predictive content depending on the subperiod examined. To explain this modified puzzle, the paper makes use of a recently developed model of the risk premium, which we have called an aggregate uncertainty premium. Our model employs an alternative approach to modeling exchange rate expectations, dubbed Imperfect Knowledge Expectations (IKE), which recognizes that rational agents do form expectations based on imperfect knowledge. Our model also makes use of a dynamic extension of the assumption of myopic loss aversion. We find that our IKE-based approach can account for the pattern of positive and negative biases estimated over three decades of floating rates.

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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 02-17.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2002
Date of revision: Nov 2002
Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0217

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Keywords: exchange rates forward-premium anomaly instability imperfect knowledge expectations risk premium

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange," Discussion Papers 03-31, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frydman, R. & Goldberg, M.D., 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 03-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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