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Alternative Scenarios for Hungary 's Accession and Macroeconomic Development

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János Gács

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Abstract

The aim of the research was to investigate likely macroeconomic developments in Hungary through 2010, based on two distinct scenarios: one that assumes accession for Hungary to the EU in 2005, and another that assumes the country will not accede to the EU before 2010 (the status quo scenario). The paper presents the specificities and main patterns of macroeconomic development in Hungary since the start of the transition. Section 2 is devoted to the analysis of the existing calculations for country's potential growth in the long run as well as to the likely development of the main factors of growth. In order to delineate the framework of the projections section 3 deals with two crucial topics: the characteristics of foreign economic relations and savings. The next section begins with the general evaluation of the likely impacts of accession on the Central and East European Countries (CEECs) as new EU members and goes on presenting the scenario projections for Hungary .

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Paper provided by KOPINT DATORG LTD. Economic Research Division in its series KOPINT-DATORG Discussion Paper Archive with number 60.

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Date of creation: Apr 2000
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Handle: RePEc:kop:discpa:dp60

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  1. Zsolt Darvas & András Simon, 1999. "Capital Stock and Economic Development in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Gros, Daniel & Gonciarz, Andrzej, 1996. "A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 709-721, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Paul Brenton & Francesca Di Mauro, 1998. "Is There Any Potential in Trade in Sensitive Industrial Products Between the CEECs and the EU?," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 285-304, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "How Far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 98/53, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Knack, Steve, 1996. " Institutions and the Convergence Hypothesis: The Cross-National Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 87(3-4), pages 207-28, June.
  8. J. Gacs & M. Wyzan, 1998. "The European Union and the Rest of the World: Complements or Substitutes for Central and Eastern Europe?," Working Papers ir98020, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  10. Campos, Nauro F, 2000. "Back to the Future: the Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered," CEPR Discussion Papers 2654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger, . "Use and Misuse of Gravity Equations in European Integration Research," WIFO Working Papers 93, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  12. J Bonin & M Schaffer, 1995. "Banks, Firms, Bad Debts and Bankruptcy in Hungary 1991-4," CEP Discussion Papers 0234, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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