A real time Evaluation of Employment Forecasts in Switzerland
AbstractWe evaluate nowcasts and one- to four-quarter-ahead forecasts of Swiss full time equivalent jobs from 1998q1–2011q4, comparing forecasts of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs with the outcome of the reference series. Both forecasts are biased downward, and they do not capture the trend of the reference series well. In addition, we show that the KOF Employment Indicator as well as the Employment Indicator of the Federal Statistical Office are useful to predict the evolution full time equivalent jobs with a lead of about one quarter.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 12-320.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Forecasting employment; forecast evaluation; Swiss labor market;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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