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A real time evaluation of employment forecasts in Switzerland

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Abstract

We evaluate nowcasts and one- to four-quarter-ahead forecasts of Swiss full time equivalent jobs from 1998q1-2011q4, comparing forecasts of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs with the outcome of the reference series. Both forecasts are biased downward, and they do not capture the trend of the reference series well. In addition, we show that the KOF Employment Indicator as well as the Employment Indicator of the Federal Statistical Office are useful to predict the evolution full time equivalent jobs with a lead of about one quarter.

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  • Michael Graff & Massimo Mannino & Michael Siegenthaler, 2012. "A real time evaluation of employment forecasts in Switzerland," KOF Working papers 12-320, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-320
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-007568961
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-007568961
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
    2. Siegenthaler Michael & Graff Michael & Mannino Massimo, 2016. "Characteristics and Drivers of the Swiss “Job Miracle”," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(1), pages 53-89, May.
    3. Michael Graff & Massimo Mannino & Michael Siegenthaler, 2014. "The Swiss "Job Miracle"," KOF Working papers 14-368, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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    Keywords

    KOF-Key-arbeitsmarkt;

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