Assessing Forecasting Performance of Business Tendency Surveys during the Great Recession: Evidence for Russia
AbstractThis study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time data vintages of the index of industrial production in Russia we conclude that the use of surveys positively contributes to boosting forecast accuracy of industrial production compared with forecasts based on a benchmark univariate autoregressive model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 12-306.
Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
The Great Recession; business tendency surveys; forecasting; model selection; Autometrics; Russia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.