Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland
AbstractThis study presents a model that delivers more accurate forecasts of the revised rather initial estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate in Switzerland during the period of the recent financial crisis. The key explanation to our findings is that our model, capitalizing on the information contained in the Business Tendency Surveys, is able to predict future revisions of the initial estimates. Our findings imply that there seems to be a scope for improvement of how preliminary estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate are produced in Switzerland.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 11-281.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
GDP revisions; forecasting; mixed-frequency data; factor model;
Other versions of this item:
- Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012. "Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 58(4), pages 299-326.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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