Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Different Weighting Methods in Business Tendency Survey Indicators in Swiss Manufacturing Industry

Contents:

Author Info

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In business cycle analysis the development of inventories still plays a crucial role. The strong movements over time have a large effect particularly on the growth rate of GDP. Quantitative data on inventories are generally of rather low quality. As a complement to quantitative statistics, business tendency surveys (BTS) offer actual data on stocks of different categories and on order books (often called negative inventories) to estimate actual values. However, the qualitative data do not show up in the empirical analysis. One reason could be that the aggregation process in BTS of these two items is often not adequate. Three alternative weighting methods were applied at firm level: no weighting, weighting with the number of employees, weighting with the number of employees plus the ratio of order books/stock to sales. These were compared with the current weighting method which includes stratification and branch weights by value added. The four indicators for each of the BTS questions had a statistically different variance, mean or distribution in most cases. The comparison of these four versions of weighting with the reference series – growth rate of order books and of stocks of finished products – produced quite different results. For the growth rate of order books, the best fit was with the non-weighted responses of the firms to the question on changes of order books. The match with the growth rate of stocks of finished products was generally lower. The best fit was again with the non-weighted responses on the change question on stocks of finished products.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.kof.ethz.ch/publications/science/pdf/wp_150.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 06-150.

    as in new window
    Length: 27 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:06-150

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Weinbergstrasse 35, CH-8092 Zürich
    Phone: +41 44 632 41 28
    Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: weighting; stocks of finished products; order books; business tendency surveys;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:06-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.