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Quantitative Analyse der Auswirkungen wirtschaftspolitischer Massnahmen auf die Einkommensverteilung und das «neue magische Viereck» in der Schweiz

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Author Info
Jochen Hartwig () (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zürich)

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Abstract

Macroeconometric policy simulation models allow for an analysis, and, above all, for a quantification of the effects different economic policies have on the various variables that represent the economy. Despite the seminal ‘Lucas critique’ levelled against them, these models are still widely used, especially within policy-making institutions such as, e.g., central banks. In this paper, a model constructed by the author for the Swiss economy is used to explain, and to quantify the impact of fiscal, monetary, wage and social policies on the functional and personal distribution of income on the one hand, and on the four main objectives of contemporary economic policy on the other. These are: a high GDP growth, low inflation and unemployment, and a low or zero public deficit (the latter replacing the original fourth objective codified, e.g., in the German Stability Act of 1967, which was external balance). Our approach will enable us to answer questions like: Which income group suffers most from a hike in the short term interest rate?, Should a large public spending project better be financed by increasing the VAT rate or the income tax rate?, and How much could the aggregate social security contribution rate be lowered if the formula used for calculating the alignment of retirement pensions was changed?

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 04-90.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:04-90

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Related research
Keywords: Income distribution; ‘magic square’; macroeconometric model; policy simulation; Switzerland;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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