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Time Pressure and Strategic Risk-Taking in Professional Chess

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Carow

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

  • Niklas M. Witzig

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)

Abstract

We study the impact of time pressure on strategic risk-taking of professional chess players. We propose a novel machine-learning-based measure for the degree of strategic risk of a single chess move and apply this measure to the 2013-2023 FIDE Chess World Cups that allow for plausibly exogenous variation in thinking time. Our results indicate that time pressure leads chess players to opt for more risk-averse moves. We additionally provide correlational evidence for strategic loss aversion, a tendency for risky moves after a mistake/ in a disadvantageous position. This suggests that high-proficiency decision-makers in highstake situations react to time pressure and contextual factors more broadly. We discuss the origins and implication of this finding in our setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Carow & Niklas M. Witzig, 2024. "Time Pressure and Strategic Risk-Taking in Professional Chess," Working Papers 2404, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    • Handle: RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2404
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    File URL: https://download.uni-mainz.de/RePEc/pdf/Discussion_Paper_2404.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2024
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chess; Risk; Time Pressure; Loss Aversion; Machine Learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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