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Heterogeneous impacts of COVID-19 on trade : evidence from China's province-level data

Author

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  • Cai, Dapeng
  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu

Abstract

This study investigates how the extent of COVID-19 damage affected China’s province-level trade with foreign countries and reports the heterogeneous effects of these damages. Using monthly trade data for January–August 2019 and 2020 and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, in a gravity equation, we measure the damage extent on exports and imports separately. The results show that a provincial rise in the confirmed cases decreases exports and imports, especially until March. The larger negative effects of COVID-19 are more prominent on the processing than ordinary trade; these effects are smaller in provinces with a larger number of deaths during the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak. However, urbanization and mobile phone diffusion exhibit a potential to mitigate these effects on trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Dapeng & Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2020. "Heterogeneous impacts of COVID-19 on trade : evidence from China's province-level data," IDE Discussion Papers 803, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper803
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhilu Che & Mei Kong & Sen Wang & Jiakun Zhuang, 2023. "How Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Impact Internal Trade? Evidence from China’s Provincial-Level Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Magdalena Olczyk & Marta Ewa Kuc-Czarnecka, 2021. "Determinants of COVID-19 Impact on the Private Sector: A Multi-Country Analysis Based on Survey Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; International Trade; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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