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Assessing the impact of China shocks on the trade creation effect in ASEAN

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  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu

Abstract

Policymakers in ASEAN countries are concerned that an explosive increase in imports from China has dampened intra-ASEAN trade. This study empirically examines the effect of imports from China on intra-ASEAN trade. We employ a two-step approach. First, we estimate the product-level gravity equation with the full set of fixed effects on intra-ASEAN trade. Second, we regress the estimates of importer-product-year-fixed effects on the share of imports from China that constitute all imports in addition to intra-ASEAN tariffs. As is consistent with the concern above, we found that from 2000 to 2015, increases in ASEAN imports from China reduced intra-ASEAN trade by 20%. Such an increase in imports from China is equivalent to the rise of intra-ASEAN tariffs by 20%.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2020. "Assessing the impact of China shocks on the trade creation effect in ASEAN," IDE Discussion Papers 801, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper801
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China shocks; ASEAN; Trade creation effect; International trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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