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El balance actuarial como indicador de la solvencia del sistema de reparto

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  • María del Carmen Boado Penas

    ()
    (Universitat de València)

  • Carlos Vidal- Meliá

    (Universitat de València)

Abstract

The aim of this work is twofold: on the one hand, to demonstrate the utility of the actuarial balance as an element of transparency, an indicator of the solvency, sustainability and financial solidity of the pay-as-you-go system and a tool capable of providing positive incentives to improve the financial management of the system, eliminating or at least reducing the traditional divergence between the planning horizon of the politicians and that of the system itself; and on the other, to make the first estimates of the actuarial balance of the Spanish contributory pension system for the old age contingency, based on official figures. To this end, we analytically explain the novel entry in the balance sheet called the ¿Contribution Asset¿, and compare it to the ¿Hidden Asset¿. We also provide a comparison between the official actuarial balance for the Swedish notional account system and the Spanish balance. The main finding is that the Spanish pension system shows a 31.4% insolvency ratio for 2006. Moreover, a comparison of the consecutive balance sheets for 2001-06 shows that the system has a structural actuarial disequilibrium, which means that the degree of insolvency is growing over time even though the cash-flow outcome has improved over the same period. The absence of a balance sheet in this specific case produces a ¿mirage effect¿ by hiding the presence of a capital deficit, relativising future cash deficits and, more importantly, not taking steps to reverse this trend, restore solvency and eliminate the ¿losses¿ or ¿increases¿ in the accumulated deficit which accrue every year that passes without reform. Two main suggestions for economic policy spring from this paper: the need to compile an official actuarial balance sheet and actuarial annual results so that society may be made aware of the real situation of the Spanish pension system, and the advisability of applying an automatic balancing mechanism which, would predetermine the combinations of gradual parametric adjustments needed to reverse the negative trend and set the Spanish pension system on the road to solvency in the long run. El objetivo de este trabajo es doble, por un lado mostrar la utilidad del balance actuarial como elemento de transparencia, indicador de la solvencia, sostenibilidad o solidez financiera del sistema de reparto e instrumento que es capaz de proporcionar incentivos positivos para la mejora de la gestión financiera al minimizar la tradicional divergencia entre el horizonte de planificación de los políticos y el del propio sistema en sí; por el otro, realizar la primera estimación, a partir de datos oficiales, del balance y de resultado actuarial del sistema español de pensiones contributivas de jubilación. Con el fin de alcanzar los objetivos propuestos, se desarrolla analíticamente el elemento más novedoso del balance actuarial, el denominado "Activo por cotizaciones", y éste se contrasta con el "Activo Oculto", también se realiza la estimación del balance actuarial del sistema público de pensiones español y se compara el ratio de solvencia que deriva del balance español con el del sistema sueco de pensiones. El indicador de solvencia del sistema español está lejos de ser considerado razonablemente solvente, ya que, para el año 2006, un 31,4% del pasivo actuarial no tiene cobertura. Es más, el estudio de la serie de balances para el período 2001-2006 revela que el sistema presenta un desequilibrio actuarial estructural lo que provoca un aumento continuo del grado de insolvencia, pese a que el sistema ha obtenido un superávit de tesorería en el período objeto de estudio. La ausencia de balance actuarial, en este caso concreto, produce un "efecto espejismo" al ocultar la presencia de un déficit patrimonial, relativizar los déficits de caja futuros y sobre todo, diferir la toma de medidas efectivas para restaurar la solvencia del sistema y eliminar las "pérdidas" o incrementos en el déficit acumulado, que se están devengando por cada año que transcurre sin reforma. Las principales recomendaciones de política económica que se desprenden de este trabajo son dos: la necesidad de elaborar oficialmente el balance y el resultado actuarial anual con el fin de concienciar a la sociedad sobre la verdadera situación del sistema de pensiones, y la conveniencia de introducir un mecanismo de ajuste automático que, al menos predetermine la combinación de ajustes paramétricos graduales que empujen sostenidamente al sistema a la senda de la solvencia financiera en el largo plazo.

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File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2008-02.pdf
File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2008
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2008-02.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2008-02

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Related research

Keywords: España; Jubilación; Pensiones; Sistema de reparto; Solvencia; Suecia. Spain; Retirement; Pensions; Pay-as-you-go; Solvency; Sweden.;

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