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Un Estudio Empírico De Transmisión Monetaria En Europa

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  • Gloria M. Soto Pacheco

    ()
    (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Mª Asunción Prats Albentosa

    ()
    (Universidad de Murcia)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to determine whether there have been differences in the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom since Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) establishment. The analysis is based on the fulfilment of the Expectations Hypothesis under rational expectations and the methodology is implemented through a VAR model with ARCH disturbances.The evidence obtained shows that the analysed countries started from different monetary transmission structures and that these differences still remain at a larger extent. Also, the EMU seems not to have increased the power of the transmission mechanism in every single country. Its contribution is shown to be poor in the case of the Mediterranean countries (Spain and Italy). However, in Continental countries, Germany and especially in France, the effectiveness of monetary transmission is outstanding nowadays. Este trabajo analiza las diferencias en la efectividad del mecanismo de transmisión monetaria en Alemania, Francia, Italia, España y el Reino Unido en el periodo previo y posterior a la UEM. El análisis se centra en el estudio de la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés y emplea como marco analítico el contraste de la Teoría de las Expectativas bajo la hipótesis de racionalidad. La metodología econométrica se implementa mediante un modelo VAR con perturbaciones ARCH.Los resultados obtenidos muestran que los países analizados partían de estructuras de transmisión monetaria diferentes que aún permanecen en la actualidad. La UEM no parece haber aumentado significativamente la capacidad de transmisión monetaria en cada uno de ellos. En los países mediterráneos (España e Italia) los resultados muestran una transmisión débil, mientras que en los países continentales (Alemania y Francia) la evidencia es mucho mayor y hasta un horizonte de medio plazo.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2006-04.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2006-04

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Keywords: Estructura temporal; transmisión monetaria ; VAR; cointegración; expectativas Term structure; monetary transmission; VAR; cointegration; expectations hypothesis;

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