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El Valor De Las Recomendaciones De Consenso De Los Analistas Financieros En El Mercado De Capitales Español

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Author Info

  • Juan Carlos Gómez Sala

    ()
    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Germán López Espinosa

    (Universidad de Navarra)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the value of analysts’ stock recommendations in the Spanish capital market in the period 1994-2003, using data from JCF Quant. In every month of the sample period the assets have been classified into five portfolios first attending its consensus recommendations level and second by changes of consensus level. The portfolio recommendations returns have been estimated using different models in the context of the portfolio calendar-time methodology. The results obtained show that sell-side analysts are able to detect profitable investment opportunities. Investors could obtain significant positive risk adjusted abnormal returns buying the best recommended assets and selling simultaneously the worst consensus stocks. However a portion of these returns could be attributed to their tendency to recommend the acquisition of big “value” stocks and the sell of small shares with negative prices momentum. Finally, the value of analyst’s recommendations is independent of the firm information level approached by the company size and the number of analysts following it. En este trabajo se analiza el valor de las recomendaciones de inversión de los analistas financieros en el mercado de capitales español en el periodo 1994-2003, con datos procedentes de JCF Quant. Los activos se han clasificado cada mes del periodo muestral en cinco carteras en función del nivel de consenso de las recomendaciones y de sus variaciones. La rentabilidad de las carteras de recomendaciones (cambios) se ha estimado utilizando modelizaciones alternativas con una metodología de tiempo de calendario. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que los analistas identifican oportunidades de inversión rentables, dado que con una estrategia de inversión autofinanciada, consistente en comprar la cartera con recomendaciones más favorables y vender la cesta de activos con peores recomendaciones, se pueden obtener rentabilidades significativamente positivas incluso después de ajustar por riesgo. Parte de esta rentabilidad no es atribuible a su propia capacidad sino a la tendencia a recomendar la compra de activos grandes de valor y la venta de activos pequeños con momentum de precios negativo. Finalmente, el valor de las recomendaciones no parece depender del nivel de información existente sobre las empresas aproximado por el tamaño de las empresas o el número de analistas.

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File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2005-09.pdf
File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2005-09.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2005-09

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Related research

Keywords: Analistas del lado de la venta; Valor de las recomendaciones; Evaluación resultados de carteras Sell-side research; Value of analysts’ recommendations; Performance evaluation; calendar time-portfolios;

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