Twenty-Five Years Of Import Substitution In Brazil 1948-1972

In concluding her now classic analysis of the Brazilian import substitution model, the Brazilian economist Maria Concei. So Tavares pointed out four "different strategic possibilities" which in 1964 still represented realistic alternatives for the coming decade. The first possibility assumed the persistence of the external bottleneck and stability of sectoral and regional market structures. A second alternative assumed the persistence of the external bottleneck but envisioned changes in sectoral and regional market distribution which would reduce the already exaggerated duality of the system. The third alternative foresaw the possible expansion of traditional exports and an improvement in the external sector which would allow the internal structure to survive "intact." A fourth possibility envisioned export diversification, especially of manufactured goods, and thus also the alleviation of the import constraint and the crisis it compelled...