Asset Prices and Twin Crises
Abstract
Recent emerging market crises have been characterized by two key features: (i) banking crises generally precede currency crises, and (ii) asset prices decline in advance of currency crises. This paper argues that asset prices provide a key link between banking and currency crises. It is shown that a prospective currency crisis due to an unanticipated increase in the public debt triggers an asset price decline. Banks' exposure to asset prices in turn deteriorates their balance sheets and precipitates a banking crisis. Under the assumption of government bailout of banks, it is shown that the `twin' crises are self-fulfilling and their time-line follows (i) and (ii) described above. The timing of currency crisis is decreasing in the ratio of government's bailout to banks' loss of capital.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12844.Length:
Date of creation: 29 Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of International Money and Finance 2009, vol. 28, pp. 26-55
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12844
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Email:
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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Related research
Keywords: twin crises; currency crises; banking crises; government bailout;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
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