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Fiscal Multipliers in the Eurozone: A SVAR Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • Frederico Silva Leal

Abstract

We compute the value of fiscal multipliers (for government primary expenditure, Income and wealth taxes and for Production and import ones) in the Eurozone countries since the creation of the currency union (2001Q1-2016Q4), and to understand how the values may vary according to the public debt level, the rhythm of economic growth and the output gap. Imposing quarterly fiscal shocks in the period 2000-2016, the results shown that the government expenditure had a positive effect on output, with an annual accumulated multiplier of 0.64 while the tax multipliers presented negative signs - the Income and wealth and the Production and import taxes stood at -0.10 and -0.32, respectively. Furthermore, the multipliers shown higher values for countries with higher levels of public debt (to small levels, the expenditure multiplier is close to zero and the tax multipliers seem to have positive signs),during recessions, and in countries with positive output gaps.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2018. "Fiscal Multipliers in the Eurozone: A SVAR Analysis," Working Papers REM 2018/47, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp0472018
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    Cited by:

    1. Raghu Bir Bista & Kiran Prasad Sankhi, 2022. "Assessing Multiplier Effects of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth in Nepal: SVAR Model Analysis," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 50-58.
    2. Ling Tian & Haisong Dong, 2023. "Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Chinese Residents’ Individual Characteristics and Commercial Health Insurance Demand," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-20, March.
    3. António Afonso & Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2023. "Consumption Patterns of Indebted Households: Unravelling the Relevance of Fiscal Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10565, CESifo.
    4. Tsvetomir Tsvetkov & Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Anti-Crisis Macroeconomic Policy in the Conditions of COVID-19 in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 107-130.
    5. Alban Elshani & Leke Pula, 2023. "Impact of Taxes on Economic Growth: An Empirical Study in the Eurozone," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 24-41.
    6. António Afonso & Eduardo Rodrigues, 2024. "Is public investment in construction and in R&D, growth enhancing? A PVAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(24), pages 2875-2899, May.
    7. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2020. "Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In The United States And Brazil: Svar Approach," Working Papers REM 2020/0150, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Roben Kloosterman & Dennis Bonam & Koen van der Veer, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Working Papers 755, DNB.
    9. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2022. "Fiscal episodes in the Economic and Monetary Union: Elasticities and non‐Keynesian effects," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 571-593, January.
    10. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Public Debt–Growth Relationship: The Role of the Expenditure Multiplier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, April.
    11. Vese Qehaja-Kekae & Driton Qehaja & Arber Hoti, 2023. "The Effect of Fiscal Deficits on Economic Growth: Evidence from Eurozone Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 3-18.
    12. El Mostafa Bentour, 2022. "The effects of public debt accumulation and business cycle on government spending multipliers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(19), pages 2231-2256, April.
    13. Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria and Central and Eastern Europe Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 131-167.
    14. Fatih Chellai, 2021. "What can SVAR models tell us about the impact of Public Expenditure Shocks on macroeconomic variables in algeria? A Slight Hint to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 21(2), pages 21-37, December.
    15. Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah & Muhammad Asim Afridi, 2023. "Cyclical variation of fiscal multipliers in Caucasus and Central Asia economies: an empirical evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4531-4563, December.
    16. Eduardo de Sa Fortes Leitao Rodrigues, 2023. "Uncertainty and the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the United States and Brasil: SVAR Approach," Working Papers 2023.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multiplier; Structural VAR; Fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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