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International transmission of interest rates: the role of international reserves and sovereign debt

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • Florence Huart
  • João Tovar Jalles
  • Piotr Stanek

Abstract

We analyse the international transmission of interest rates by focusing onthe role of the accumulation of international reserves and on the financing of sovereign debt. An increase in foreign exchange reserves is expected to moderate the influence of U.S. interest rates.However,a high level of government debt raises the sovereign risk premium. Moreover, an increase in the stock ofgovernment debt denominated in foreign currency may increasethe expected rate of depreciation of the domestic currency. We explain the theoretical mechanisms in a model, which describes the money market equilibrium in an economy with capital account openness. Then, we test the predictions of the model for a panel of advanced and developing economies over the period 1970-2018. Our main findings are: i) significant spillovers from the U.S. interest rates to other countries, mostly for Advanced Economies; ii) a dampening effect of the share of external liabilities in the domestic currency, clearly a determinant of risk premium; iii)a negative effect of international reserves on interest rates, as expected; iv) higher reserves decrease risk premia, for long-term interest rates; v)the significanceof spilloversfades once the sovereign debtreaches100% of GDPin developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2021. "International transmission of interest rates: the role of international reserves and sovereign debt," Working Papers REM 2021/0156, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01562021
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    Keywords

    interest rates; international reserves; government debt; spillover effects; monetary policy; fiscal policy; panel analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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