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Fluxo de Capital e Qualidade Institucional das Economias Emergentes

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  • Katia Rocha
  • Ajax Moreira

Abstract

Este estudo analisa a relação entre qualidade institucional e fluxo de capital para economias emergentes; determinante estrutural de longo prazo usualmente pouco debatido na literatura. As treze economias analisadas entre 2000 e 2014 representavam mais de 70% do índice JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global, em setembro de 2016. A especificação do modelo tem o mérito de medir os efeitos diretos e indiretos das variáveis consideradas exógenas nos fundamentos domésticos, o que, segundo nosso conhecimento, é uma abordagem inovadora. Os principais resultados sugerem que uma melhoria da qualidade institucional da economia emergente está intimamente ligada a uma maior entrada de fluxo de capital; em especial, investimento externo direto. Um aumento típico na qualidade institucional anularia os efeitos adversos de choque de liquidez internacional ou aversão ao risco global.

Suggested Citation

  • Katia Rocha & Ajax Moreira, 2016. "Fluxo de Capital e Qualidade Institucional das Economias Emergentes," Discussion Papers 2264, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2264
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