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Ciclos Políticos Eleitorais e Investimentos das Administrações Públicas no Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Octávio Orair
  • Raphael Rocha Gouvêa
  • Ésio Moreira Leal

Abstract

Este trabalho provê novas evidências para a literatura empírica que explora a presença de ciclos políticos eleitorais nos investimentos públicos no Brasil. A abordagem se diferencia da maior parte dos trabalhos da área por aplicar a modelagem de espaço de estados. Sua maior vantagem é estimar o componente cíclico com maior precisão e de maneira endógena. Outra distinção é considerar a presença de ciclos nos três entes federados, além das transferências do governo federal, permitindo-se uma visão mais abrangente da administração pública e das inter-relações federativas. As contribuições mais relevantes foram: i) a identificação de diferenças qualitativas nos ciclos eleitorais de cada ente federado, constatando-se menor grau de influência direta das eleições municipais conforme se caminha da esfera local para as esferas estadual e federal; e ii) a observação de estreita relação entre os ciclos bienais das transferências do governo federal e dos investimentos dos demais entes federados. This paper provides new evidence for the empirical literature that investigates the presence of political cycles in public investments in Brazil. This approach differs from most of the studies for applying the state-space modeling whose greatest benefit is estimating the cyclical component endogenously and with greater precision. Another difference is that it considers the presence of cycles in central, states and local investments and central government capital transfers allowing a wider vision of the general government sector and of the intergovernmental relations. The main contributions come from the identification of qualitative differences among the political cycles of each government level – pointing to a smaller degree of direct influence of local elections as it progresses from local to state and central levels – and the close relation between the two-year cycles of central government transfers and of the investment of state and local levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Octávio Orair & Raphael Rocha Gouvêa & Ésio Moreira Leal, 2014. "Ciclos Políticos Eleitorais e Investimentos das Administrações Públicas no Brasil," Discussion Papers 1999, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1999
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