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Identificando a Demanda e a Oferta de Crédito Bancário no Brasil

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  • Mario Jorge Mendonça
  • Adolfo Sachsida
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    Abstract

    Este estudo tem como objetivo estimar o sistema de oferta e demanda de crédito bancário no Brasil. O entendimento de como se dá o equilíbrio neste mercado é fundamental, pois somente assim é possível avançar na discussão sobre a importância do canal de crédito. Com base no emprego de dados agregados, entre junho de 2000 e agosto de 2012, para os segmentos de crédito de pessoa física (PF) e pessoa jurídica (PJ) pode-se observar os seguintes resultados. Primeiro, a demanda por crédito é prócíclica,reagindo negativamente ao desemprego e positivamente ao PIB. Segundo, a elasticidade-preço da demanda para PJ é maior do que a obtida para PF, corroborando o fato de que as empresas podem dispor de outras fontes de financiamento. Em terceiro lugar, não foi possível determinar a curva de oferta de crédito para PF. Este fato parece indicar que não existe causalidade reversa, no sentido de que nesta categoria a demanda não exerce impacto sobre a taxa de empréstimo. Em quarto lugar, observam-se os sinais esperados para a inadimplência, a taxa de captação, e inflação nas funções de oferta de crédito em ambos os segmentos. Por fim, constata-se que a introdução do crédito consignado no segmento de PF fez cair o custo do empréstimo. This study aims to estimate the system of bank credit demand and supply in Brazil. Understanding how the balance is established in this market is the key to know the importance of the credit channel. Based on the aggregated data from June 2000 to August 2012 not only for firms but also for individuals we founded the following results. First, credit demand is pro-cyclical, reacting negatively to the unemployment and positively to GDP. Second, the price elasticity of demand for firms is higher for firms than for individuals, corroborating the fact that companies may have other sources of funding.Thirdly, it was not possible to determine the bank credit supply to individuals. This fact seems to indicate that there is no reverse causality in the personnel credit in the sense that, for this segment, the credit demand has no effect on the loan rate. Fourth,i. The versions in English of the abstracts of this series have not been edited by Ipea’s editorial department. As versões em língua inglesa das sinopses (abstracts) desta coleção não são objeto de revisão pelo Editorial do Ipea. we observe the expected signs into default, the cost of funding and inflation in creditsupply function in both segments. Finally, it appears that the introduction of payroll loans on personnel credit brought down the cost of the loan. Keywords: credit demand and supply; bank lending channel; balance sheet channel;

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1837.

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    Length: 38 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1837

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