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Dívida Pública e Passivo Externo. Onde Está a Ameaça?

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  • Denise Lobato Gentil
  • Victor Leonardo de Araújo
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    Abstract

    A partir de uma análise dos passivos em moeda doméstica e em moeda estrangeira, este trabalho procura investigar em que medida a trajetória e a composição das dívidas líquida e bruta do setor público, bem como do passivo externo bruto (PEB) e do passivo externo líquido (PEL), constituem obstáculos à continuidade da trajetória de crescimento do produto interno bruto (PIB) brasileiro. A conclusão é que, de modo diferente do que indica a maior parte das análises sobre economia brasileira, os indicadores fiscais são mais confortáveis que os indicadores externos. A dívida líquida do setor público (DLSP) tem descrito trajetória de queda, e sua composição hoje possui pouca exposição cambial. O crescimento da dívida bruta está mais associado ao financiamento do investimento público e de empresas estatais, embora a componente financeira decorrente da operacionalidade da política monetária ainda seja elevada. O setor externo, por sua vez, constitui ameaça maior. O PEL tem se expandido a despeito do maior acúmulo de ativos em moeda estrangeira, e a parcela de curto prazo já representa quase a metade do passivo total. A contrapartida é a deterioração da conta de serviços e rendas. A incapacidade da balança comercial em garantir a geração de superávits em transações correntes torna a economia brasileira dependente dos fluxos financeiros e, portanto, do acúmulo de mais passivo externo. Palavras-chaves: dívida pública; passivo externo; economia brasileira. This work aims to analyze if the trajectory and composition of net and gross, public debt and external liabilities can hinder the growth of Brazilian GDP. The work concludes that fiscal indicators are more comfortable that external indicators. The net public debt is falling and less linked to exchange rate variations; the gross public debt is rising but it finances more public investment and public enterprises than monetary policy`s operations. External sector play a bigger menace: net external liabilities are growing although the recent external assets? accumulation; and the short run portion is growing too.The deficit in factor income is growing, and the trade balance is not capable to generate surplus in the current account. So, Brazilian economy is more dependent of financial flows, hence more dependent of external liabilities. Keywords: public debt; external liabilities; Brazilian economy.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1768.

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    Length: 34 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1768

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