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Determinantes dos Deságios Nos Leilões de Transmissão de Energia Elétrica no Brasil Entre 1999 e 2010

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  • Katia Rocha
  • Ajax Moreira
  • Rodrigo Limp
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    Abstract

    O estudo analisa os determinantes dos altos deságios no setor de transmissão de energia elétrica no Brasil entre 1999 e 2010 através de um modelo econométrico baseado no modelo de Roy e estimador de Heckman (1979) que considera a heterogeneidade entre os lances vencedores e perdedores, e a endogeneidade desta clivagem. A partir do conjunto total de lances, explicita-se a heterogeneidade entre os grupos e corrige-se o respectivo viés devido à endogeneidade desta classificação. O objeto de pesquisa se justifica uma vez que estudos que se focam apenas nos lances vencedores e que ignoram a correção em virtude da endogeneidade da seleção do grupo vencedor podem conduzir a conclusões impróprias. Conclui-se que: i) lances realizados por estatais (líderes ou isoladas) têm 50% de probabilidade de vencer o lote; ii) na maioria dos lances vencedores, as estatais têm entrado em consórcios com grupos privados nacionais; iii) a probabilidade de vencer os leilões está relacionada a ganhos de escala devido à existência prévia de investimentos na região do lote a ser leiloado; iv) os altos deságios são em parte explicados pelo menor risco Brasil e maior rentabilidade do empreendimento, sendo mais importantes na determinação dos deságios dos lances vencedores que dos perdedores, provavelmente devido ao seu melhor conjunto de atributos e informações; v) o grau de concorrência aumenta os deságios com efeito não linear; e vi) a média dos deságios dos lances classificados como destoantes (36%) é praticamente o dobro da média dos demais deságios (23%), sendo praticados principalmente pela estatal líder que apresentar o maior número (57%) de lances destoantes com deságios médios da ordem de 40%, indicando maior propensão à característica conhecida como "maldição do vencedor". This study investigates the determinants of the great difference between winning bids and reserve prices in the transmission electricity sector in Brazil between 1999- 2010, through an econometric approach based on Heckman (1979) that considers the heterogeneous among the winner`s and loser`s bids, and the endogeneity of that selection. Given the whole data of winner`s and loser`s bids, the heterogeneity of the groups is modeled and endogeneity bias classification is corrected. The object of i. The versions in English of the abstracts of this series have not been edited by Ipea`s editorial department. As versões em língua inglesa das sinopses (abstracts) desta coleção não são objeto de revisão pelo Editorial do Ipea. this research is justified since studies that focus just on winning bids or ignore the endogeneity of the winning group selection could lead to misleading conclusions. Results can be summarize as follows: i) bids made by state public companies have 50% probability to win the auction; ii) the majority of winning bids come from state public companies in partnership to private national groups; iii) winning probability is related to previous investments made in the bid area due to economies of scale; iv) the great difference between reserve price and winning bids are partly explained by the improvements in Brazil country risk and the profitability of the project, being more important for winners than losers probably due to the better set of information and effectiveness of the winning group; v) the number of competitors decreases the bids but with non linear effects; and vi) outlier bids made by public companies represent 57% of total outliers with an average bid of 40% less than the reserve price, indicating the winner`s curse characteristic.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1703.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1703

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