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Impactos de Políticas de Desoneração do Setor Produtivo: Uma Avaliação a Partir de um Modelo de Gerações Superpostas

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Author Info

  • Napoleão Luiz Costa da Silva
  • Marco Antônio Freitas Hollanda Cavalcanti

Abstract

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar os impactos macroeconômicos e de bem-estar de algumas propostas recentes de desoneração tributária do setor produtivo nacional. Em particular, busca-se avaliar os impactos da substituição de parte da contribuição previdenciária por uma tributação do valor adicionado e da implementação das medidas de desoneração do investimento produtivo contidas no Programa de Desenvolvimento Produtivo lançado pelo governo federal em maio de 2008. Para tanto, utiliza-se um modelo de gerações superpostas com incerteza quanto ao tempo de vida de cada família e custos de ajustamento do capital. No caso da substituição da contribuição previdenciária dos empregadores, verificam-se impactos macroeconômicos e redistributivos importantes, com ganhos expressivos de bem-estar para os indivíduos mais jovens e perdas para os mais velhos. No caso das medidas contidas no Programa de Desenvolvimento Produtivo, os impactos macroeconômicos simulados são relativamente pouco expressivos. A razão fundamental para tal parece decorrer da pequena redução na tributação efetiva das empresas contida no programa. Os resultados sugerem, porém, que o aprofundamento das medidas poderia gerar efeitos não-desprezíveis sobre a taxa de crescimento da economia no curto prazo. In this paper we investigate the macroeconomic and welfare effects of recent proposals to reduce the tax burden on the production sector in Brazil. We evaluate two specific policy measures: a) the replacement of social security taxes with a consumption tax; and b) the provision of tax incentives to investment activities, as established in the Federal Government’s Program for Productive Development launched in May 2008. Our analysis is based on an overlapping generations model with uncertain lifetime and capital adjustment costs. According to our results, the replacement of social security taxes with a consumption tax has important macroeconomic and redistributive effects, generating significant welfare gains to the younger generations and losses to the older generations. With regard to the tax incentives provided by the Federal Government Program, we find a relatively small macroeconomic impact, which is probably due to the small reduction in effective taxation contained in the program.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1400.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1400

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Cited by:
  1. Costa Junior, Celso José & Sampaio, Armando Vaz, 2014. "Tax Reduction Policies of the Productive Sector and Its Impacts on Brazilian Economy," Dynare Working Papers 36, CEPREMAP.

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