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O Bônus Demográfico Relativo e Absoluto no Acesso à Escola

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  • Sergei Suarez Dillon Soares

Abstract

Este texto propõe uma metodologia para classificar o bônus demográfico educacional em três componentes. De acordo com esta definição, bônus demográfico relativo quer dizer que a população em idade escolar cresce com menor velocidade que a população total, liberando, assim, mais recursos potenciais para a educação de cada criança.Um bônus absoluto significa que a população em idade escolar está, de fato, caindo. Tal definição é operacionalizada mediante uma decomposição simples das taxas de matrícula. Essa metodologia é aplicada a 11 países latino-americanos: Bolívia, Brasil, Costa Rica, Uruguai, Venezuela, Argentina, Equador, Guatemala, Honduras, México e Panamá. Os resultados mostram que o único país a contar com um bônus demográfico absoluto é o Brasil, embora México e Panamá estejam colhendo bônus relativos grandes. Um segundo grupo de países é composto de Uruguai, Costa Rica, Argentina e Equador, nos quais não há mudanças grandes na taxa de matrícula nem na estrutura da população, o que quer dizer que a metodologia de decomposição proposta não é muito útil. Finalmente, há o grupo formado por Bolívia, Guatemala, Honduras e Venezuela, países em que o bônus demográfico é pequeno ou inexistente. Surpreendentemente, foi exatamente nesses quatro países que se observou maior inclusão educacional, sugerindo que, embora as transformações demográficas sejam importantes, não são o único determinante dos resultados educacionais. This text proposes a methodology for classifying the demographic bonus in education into relative and absolute components. According to this definition, a relative demographic bonus means that school age-population is increasing more slowly than total population, making more resources available, relative to population size, for education. An absolute bonus means that school age population is actually shrinking, making more resources per child available in absolute terms. The definition is operationalized through a decomposition of changes in net enrollment rates. This methodology is then applied to eleven Latin-American countries (Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Panama). The results indicate that the only country enjoying an absolute demographic bonus in education in Brazil, although Mexico and Panama are reaping large relative bonuses. Another group of countries is composed by Uruguay, Argentina, Cost Rica, and Ecuador, in which changes in net enrollment rates have been small and population stable, meaning there is nothing to explain or decompose. Finally, a group of principally small countries composed of Bolivia, Venezuela, Honduras, and Guatemala still enjoy only either a small demographic bonus or even no bonus at all. Surprisingly, it was in these countries that the greatest increases in net enrollment rates are observed, suggesting that demographics, while important, are not the only determinant of educational results.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1340.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1340

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Cited by:
  1. Bruno Teodoro Oliva & André Portela Fernandes De Souza & Vladimir Pinheiro Ponczek, 2011. "Os Determinantes Do Fluxo Escolar Entreo Ensino Fundamental E O Ensino Médio No Brasil," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 165, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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