Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Perpetually Disparately Informed, Competitive Traders
AbstractThis paper develops a dynamic asset pricing model with persistent heterogeneous beliefs. The model features competitive traders who receive idiosyncratic signals about an underlying fundamentals process. We adapt Futia’s (1981) frequency domain methods to derive conditions on the fundamentals that guarantee noninvertibility of the mapping between observed market data and the underlying shocks to agents’ information sets. When these conditions are satisfied, agents must ‘forecast the forecasts of others’. The paper provides an explicit analytical characterization of the resulting higher-order belief dynamics. These additional dynamics can explain apparent violations of variance bounds and rejections of cross-equation restrictions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington in its series Caepr Working Papers with number 2006-010.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Asymmetric Information; Blaschke Factors;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2006-09-30 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-09-30 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-FOR-2006-09-30 (Forecasting)
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