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Long-Run Effects of Super Low Fertility on Housing Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Jangyoun Lee

    (Incheon National University)

  • Hyunduk Suh

    (Inha University)

Abstract

The total fertility rate (TFR) in Korea fell to the historically lowest value of 0.78, reaching the state of super low fertility, also similarly observed in other East Asian countries. We quantitatively assess future implications of super low fertility on housing markets using an overlapping generations (OLG) general equilibrium model, which features housing markets and demographic transitions. The results predict that while the current housing boom will continue in the near future, real housing prices will eventually decline after 2035 because of low fertility. Among government policies, increasing the housing supply or the birth rate can mitigate this long-term housing boom-bust cycle and is welfare-improving for currently young generations. Meanwhile, stricter caps on the LTV ratio are ineffective in stabilizing the housing cycle and welfare-reducing except for old generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jangyoun Lee & Hyunduk Suh, 2023. "Long-Run Effects of Super Low Fertility on Housing Markets," Inha University IBER Working Paper Series 2023-2, Inha University, Institute of Business and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:inh:wpaper:2023-2
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    File URL: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hqSdpsz1Qm8kEblkbhD6ou-wmegfp_H4/view?usp=sharing
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    super low fertility; OLG model; housing markets; housing supply; LTV policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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