Evolution of India's exchange rate regime
AbstractThe paper analyzes the changing INR trends over the reform period, in the context of fundamental determinants of exchange rates. In the early reform years the chief concern was to limit appreciation from inflows, and from higher domestic inflation, given the trade deficit. So short-term nominal depreciation maintained a long-term real fix. But with two-way nominal variation, more objectives can be accommodated. We ask how the exchange rate contributed to three possible policy objectives-maintaining a real competitive exchange rate, neutralizing inflationary oil shocks, deepening foreign exchange markets and encouraging hedging. Depreciation allowed just before oil prices crashed compromised the second objective. Inadequate commitment to two-way movement, prior to the crisis, induced firms to take large currency exposures based on expected appreciation. After the crisis, capital flows were allowed to drive the exchange rate, aggravating inflation and acting against macro stabilization. Markets need some guidance to achieve policy objectives.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India in its series Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers with number 2010-024.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
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Exchange rate regimes; stabilization; inflation; markets; capital flows; hedging;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-CIS-2011-02-19 (Confederation of Independent States)
- NEP-MON-2011-02-19 (Monetary Economics)
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