Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Indian Economic Outlook 2008-09 and 2009-10

Contents:

Author Info

  • Rajiv Kumar

    ()
    (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela)

  • Mathew Joseph

    ()
    (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela)

  • Dony Alex

    ()
    (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela)

  • Pankaj Vashisht

    ()

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper provides an outlook for the Indian economy in the light of theextraordinary global financial crisis, that started in the US, but which has nowtransformed into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. TheIndian economy was slowing down even before the onset of global crisis and so thetiming of this external shock could not have been worse. The analysis undertaken forthis paper shows that the global crisis is likely to bring the Indian GDP growth ratedown considerably. This will pose a big challenge requiring urgent and sustainedpolicy attention to prevent this downturn from becoming unnecessarily prolonged.There is real downside risk that the growth rate could plummet to the pre-1980s levelsif appropriate countercyclical measures are not taken immediately and are noturgently followed by necessary structural reforms. The paper provides a short-termforecast for GDP growth based on a model of leading economic indicators. Wepresent three scenarios in the paper assuming differentiated impact of the externalcrisis. Finally the paper suggests a set of policy measures to get the Indian economyback on the path of sustained rapid and inclusive growth.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.icrier.org/publication/WorkingPaper234.pdf
    Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (G.K. Manjunath)
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India in its series Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers with number 234.

    as in new window
    Length: 35 Pages
    Date of creation:
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ind:icrier:234

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: India Habitat Centre, Core 6A, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003
    Phone: 91-11-4645218
    Fax: 91-11-462-0180
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.icrier.res.in
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Forecasting; Indian economic growth; Economic outlook and conditions; Financial crises;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ind:icrier:234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (G.K. Manjunath).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.