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Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options

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  • Shant Arzoumanian

Abstract

This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia’s output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.

Suggested Citation

  • Shant Arzoumanian, 2023. "Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options," IMF Working Papers 2023/185, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/185
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    Keywords

    Spillovers; international business cycles; trade; remittances; FDI; market confidence; emerging markets; output fluctuation; policy option; spillovers from Russia; CIS economy; Annex I. data definition; Business cycles; Oil prices; Exports; Global;
    All these keywords.

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