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Estimating the Employment and GDP Multiplier of Emergency Cash Transfers in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Cunha
  • Ms. Joana Pereira
  • Roberto Accioly Perrelli
  • Mr. Frederik G Toscani

Abstract

We estimate the subnational employment and GDP multiplier of Brazil's 2020 federal cash transfers to vulnerable households. Using two-stage least squares regressions we estimate a formal employment multiplier and then apply an analytical transformation to recover an implied GDP multiplier in the range of 0.5-1.5. The lower bound of this range lies below most estimates in the literature, which may result from the exceptional constraints imposed by the pandemic on supply chains and consumption. Nevertheless, even using the lower end of our range implies that federal cash transfers played an important role in supporting employment and GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Cunha & Ms. Joana Pereira & Roberto Accioly Perrelli & Mr. Frederik G Toscani, 2022. "Estimating the Employment and GDP Multiplier of Emergency Cash Transfers in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2022/055, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/055
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    Cited by:

    1. Leo Feler & Arthur Mendes & Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Steven Pennings, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil," Working Paper Series 2024-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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