IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2021-069.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro
  • Rui Mano
  • Johannes Eugster
  • Mr. Dirk V Muir
  • Mr. Shanaka J Peiris

Abstract

This paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth, and embeds these different layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model. Multiple scenarios are considered that differ along two dimensions: (i) the coalition of countries (hubs) that initiate the decoupling, and (ii) whether non-hub countries are also forced to decouple via ‘preferential attachment’ – i.e. by aligning themselves with the hub they trade most with. All global technology hubs lose across scenarios, and losses are largest under preferential attachment. Smaller countries with relations that straddle multiple hubs generally lose, whereas those whose trade is heavily concentrated with one hub may gain due to reduced competition under some scenarios. Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Rui Mano & Johannes Eugster & Mr. Dirk V Muir & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2021. "Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling," IMF Working Papers 2021/069, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/069
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=50125
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kerry Liu, 2023. "America's decoupling from China: A perspective from stock markets," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 32-52, February.
    2. Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2024. "The Trade Effects of the US Export Control Regulations," IDE Discussion Papers 911, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.