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Exchange Rates and Domestic Credit—Can Macroprudential Policy Reduce the Link?

Author

Listed:
  • Erlend Nier
  • Mr. Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson
  • Yuan Gao Rollinson

Abstract

This paper examines empirically the role of macroprudential policy in addressing the effects of external shocks on financial stability. In a sample of 62 economies over the period of 2000: Q1–2016: Q4, our dynamic panel regressions show that an appreciation of the local exchange rate is associated with a subsequent increase in the domestic credit gap, while a prior tightening of macroprudential policies dampens this effect. These results are strong for small open economies, and robust when we explicitly account for potential simultaneity and reverse causality biases. We also examine a feedback effect where strong domestic credit pulls in additional cross-border funding, potentially further increasing systemic risk, and find that targeted capital controls can play a complementary role in alleviating this effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Erlend Nier & Mr. Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson & Yuan Gao Rollinson, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Domestic Credit—Can Macroprudential Policy Reduce the Link?," IMF Working Papers 2020/187, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/187
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tillmann, Peter, 2021. "Financial markets and dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Zehri, Chokri, 2022. "Asymmetric impact of capital controls on international trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    3. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Credit-to-GDP Gap Estimates in Real Time: A Stable Indicator for Macroprudential Policy Making in Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 582-614, September.
    4. Kuzman, Tanja & Lazarevic, Jelisaveta & Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2022. "Capital flows liberalisation and macroprudential policies: The effects on credit cycles in emerging economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 602-619.

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