IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2019-208.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Bas B. Bakker

Abstract

In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a decline in potential output growth (which has shifted the Okun curve to the left). We analyze what happens if central banks mistakenly diagnose the problem as insufficient demand, when it is actually a supply problem. We do this in a real model, in which inflation is not an issue. We show that aggressive central bank action may revive gross investment, but it will not revive net investment or growth. Moreover, low interest rates will lead to an increase in the capital output ratio, a low return on capital and high leverage. We show that these forecasts are in line with what has happened in major advanced countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Bas B. Bakker, 2019. "What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output," IMF Working Papers 2019/208, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=48643
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gros, Daniel, 2014. "Investment as the key to recovery in the euro area?," CEPS Papers 9821, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bakker, Bas & Ghazanchyan, Manuk & Ho, Alex & Nanda, Vibha, 2020. "The Lack of Convergence of Latin-America Compared with CESEE: Is Low Investment to Blame?," MPRA Paper 101287, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erika Urbankova & David Krizek, 2020. "Homogeneity of Determinants in the Financial Sector and Investment in EU Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, February.
    2. repec:ecb:ecbrbu:2016:0028:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Luigi Bonatti, 2016. "Anemic economic growth in advanced economies: structural factors and the impotence of expansionary macroeconomic policies," DEM Working Papers 2016/11, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Philip Vermeulen, 2016. "The recovery of investment in the euro area in the aftermath of the great recession: how does it compare historically?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 28.
    5. Gerhard Fenz & Christian Ragacs & Martin Schneider & Klaus Vondra & Walter Waschiczek, 2015. "Causes of declining investment activity in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 12-34.
    6. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2020. "Equilibrium real interest rates and the financial cycle: Empirical evidence for Euro area member countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 357-366.
    7. Byrne, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Irish Economic Performance 1987-2013: A Growth Accounting Assessment," Research Notes RN2014/4/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2018. "Equilibrium real interest rates, secular stagnation, and the financial cycle: Empirical evidence for euro-area member countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 743, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Klose, Jens, 2020. "Equilibrium real interest rates for the BRICS countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    10. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2017. "Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation: An Empirical Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(6), pages 1221-1238, November.
    11. Smarandoiu (Sanda) Luana Alexandra & Sanda Dragos Constantin, 2015. "Challenges And Achievements Towards 2020’S Smart, Sustainable And Inclusive Growth. A Critical Evaluation," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 211-217, June.
    12. Vermeulen, Philip, 2016. "The recovery of investment in the euro area in the aftermath of the great recession: how does it compare historically?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 28.
    13. P. Butzen & S. Cheliout & E. De Prest & S. Ide & W. Melyn, 2016. "Why is investment in the euro area continuing to show only weak recovery ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 81-98, september.
    14. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2017. "Addressing the Core-Periphery Imbalances in Europe: Resource Misallocation and Expansionary Fiscal Policies," EconPol Working Paper 6, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    15. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Byrne, David & Morley, Ciara, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20144, June.
    16. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.
    17. Kolasa, Aleksandra & Rubaszek, Michał, 2016. "The effect of ageing on the European economies in a life-cycle model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 50-57.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.