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A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jiri Podpiera
  • Ms. Faezeh Raei
  • Ara Stepanyan

Abstract

Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiri Podpiera & Ms. Faezeh Raei & Ara Stepanyan, 2017. "A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2017/037, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/037
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Ziramba & Bernie Zaaruka & Johanna Mumangeni & Charlotte Tjeriko & Jaungura Kaune, 2019. "The Output Gap and Potential Output in Namibia," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(5), pages 69-75.
    2. Mihnea Constantinescu & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "Unemployment or Credit: Who Holds The Potential? Results From a Small-Open Economy," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 4, Bank of Lithuania.
    3. Maciej Stefański, 2020. "To What Extent does Convergence Explain the Slowdown in Potential Growth of the CEE Countries Following the Global Financial Crisis?," KAE Working Papers 2020-058, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    4. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh D.M., 2018. "Unemployment or credit: Which one holds the potential? Results for a small open economy with a low degree of financialization," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 649-664.
    5. Mariarosaria Comunale & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen & Soroosh Soofi-Siavash, 2019. "Convergence and growth decomposition: an analysis on Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 17, Bank of Lithuania.

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