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Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Some Aggregate Evidence

Author

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  • Mr. Benedicte Baduel
  • Mr. Robert T Price

Abstract

The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs. The aggregate data suggest that LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis, and that the crisis had a strong short-run impact on key ratios of debt (debt-to-GDP, -exports, and -fiscal revenues) and debt service (debt service-to-exports, and -revenues). Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon. This may reflect a strong and durable policy response by LICs towards the crisis, or also reflect specific assumptions on the long-run growth dividends of public external debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Benedicte Baduel & Mr. Robert T Price, 2012. "Evolution of Debt Sustainability Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Some Aggregate Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2012/167, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/167
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    2. Michael Atingi-Ego & Sayed Timuno & Tiviniton Makuve, 2021. "Public Debt Accumulation in SSA: A Looming Debt Crisis [‘Government Ponzi Games and the Sustainability of Public Deficits Under Uncertainty’]," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(Supplemen), pages 103-139.
    3. Ms. Sandra Marcelino & Ms. Ivetta Hakobyan, 2014. "Does Lower Debt Buy Higher Growth? The Impact of Debt Relief Initiatives on Growth," IMF Working Papers 2014/230, International Monetary Fund.
    4. repec:nam:befdwp:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Maximilien Kaffo Melou & Mariusz A. Sumlinski & Chris Geiregat, 2014. "An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/102, International Monetary Fund.

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