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Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Michal Andrle
  • Haris Munandar
  • Charles Freedman
  • Danny Hermawan

Abstract

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Michal Andrle & Haris Munandar & Charles Freedman & Danny Hermawan, 2009. "Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2009/253, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/253
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salas, Jorge, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of a Simple Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy," Working Papers 2010-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Scharff, Juliane & Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Snudden, Stephen, 2016. "Cyclical fiscal rules for oil-exporting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 473-483.
    4. Andrle, Michal, 2012. "Understanding DSGE Filters in Forecasting and Policy Analysis," Dynare Working Papers 16, CEPREMAP.
    5. Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard & Mr. Kenji Moriyama, 2011. "Estimating a Small Open-Economy Model for Egypt: Spillovers, Inflation Dynamics, and Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2011/108, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Javier Gómez-Pineda & Mr. Dominique M. Guillaume & Kadir Tanyeri, 2015. "Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 2015/165, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Sámano Daniel, 2011. "In the Quest of Macroprudential Policy Tools," Working Papers 2011-17, Banco de México.
    8. Salas, Jorge, 2009. "¿Qué explica las fluctuaciones de la inflación en el Perú en el periodo 2002-2008? Evidencia de un análisis VAR estructural," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 16, pages 9-36.
    9. Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Petar Manchev, 2013. "GPM6: The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions," IMF Working Papers 2013/087, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Michal Andrle, 2013. "What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables," IMF Working Papers 2013/105, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Michal Andrle & Mr. Jaromir Benes, 2013. "System Priors: Formulating Priors about DSGE Models' Properties," IMF Working Papers 2013/257, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Thitipat Chansriniyom & Mr. Natan P. Epstein & Valeriu Nalban, 2020. "The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-structural Model," IMF Working Papers 2020/201, International Monetary Fund.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Indonesia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/231, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

    WP; interest rate; exchange rate;
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