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Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Chile

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  • Mr. Jorge Roldos

Abstract

This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Potential Output Growth in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Chile," IMF Working Papers 1997/104, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/104
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Iván RODRIGUEZ MUNOZ & Juan Ricardo PERILLA JIMENEZ & José Daniel REYES PEÑA, 2004. "Cálculo del PIB Potencial en Colombia.:1970-2003," Archivos de Economía 2078, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    2. Darko Lazarov & Goce Petreski, 2016. "Human Capital as a Binding Constraint to Economic Growth: The Case of Macedonia," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 35-70, June.
    3. M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Loening, J.L., 2005. "Estimating Human and Physical Capital Stocks in Data-Scarce Environments: A Methodological Note and Application to Guatemala," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1), pages 84-114.
    5. P. Burger & M. Marinkov, 2006. "The South African Phillips Curve: How Applicable Is The Gordon Model?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(2), pages 172-189, June.
    6. World Bank, 2004. "Chile : New Economy Study, Volume 2. Background Documents," World Bank Publications - Reports 14711, The World Bank Group.
    7. Jorg Scheibe, 2003. "The Chinese Output Gap During the Reform Period 1978-2002," Economics Series Working Papers 179, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Marina Marinkov & Philippe Burger, 2006. "The South African Phillips Curve: How Applicable is the Gordon Model?," Working Papers 038, Economic Research Southern Africa.

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