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Assessing Country Risk: Selected Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Ashvin Ahuja
  • Kevin Wiseman
  • Mr. Murtaza H Syed

Abstract

Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Kevin Wiseman & Mr. Murtaza H Syed, 2017. "Assessing Country Risk: Selected Approaches," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2017/008, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imftnm:2017/008
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mpho Bosupeng, 2018. "Leading Indicators and Financial Crisis: A Multi-Sectoral Approach Using Signal Extraction," Journal of Empirical Studies, Conscientia Beam, vol. 5(1), pages 20-44.
    2. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2020. "UnFEAR: Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering with an Application to Crisis Regimes Classification," IMF Working Papers 2020/262, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Fatih Akcelik & Salih Fendoglu, 2019. "Country Risk Premium and Domestic Macroeconomic Fundamentals When Global Risk Appetite Slides," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1904, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Kireyev, A. & Ferrer, J., 2021. "Economic policies in a pandemic," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 185-192.

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