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U.S. Consumption after the 2008 Crisis

Author

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  • Mr. Jaewoo Lee
  • Mr. Pau Rabanal
  • Mr. Damiano Sandri

Abstract

U.S. household consumption declined sharply in late 2008, marking a departure from the trend of a steady increase in U.S. consumption as a share of income since the 1980s. Combining econometric and simulation analysis, we estimate that this departure will be sustained beyond the crisis: the U.S. household consumption rate will likely decline somewhat further from its current level, as the saving rate rises to around 6 percent of disposable personal income (from nearly 5 percent in 2009). Compared to the pre-crisis years (2003–07), this saving rate implies a decline in U.S. private-sector demand on the order of 3 percentage points of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2010. "U.S. Consumption after the 2008 Crisis," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/001, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfspn:2010/001
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Shan & Miqdad Ali Khan, 2016. "Implications of Reverse Innovation for Socio-Economic Sustainability: A Case Study of Philips China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Jong-Hee Kim, 2017. "Monetary policy spillovers and currency crisis in comparative perspective: East Asia before the 1997 crisis and Eastern Europe after tapering," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2752-2770, December.
    3. López-Pérez, Víctor, 2016. "Does uncertainty affect non-response to the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-47.
    4. Voytenkov, Valentin & Demidova, Olga, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 on household consumption in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 72, pages 73-99.

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