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The State of Public Finances: A Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Paolo Mauro
  • Mr. Mark A Horton
  • Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar

Abstract

This paper presents sharp increase in government debt has complicated the management of preexisting challenges from population aging, especially in advanced economies. The increase in debt ratios projected for these economies is the largest since World War II. The increase in deficits and debt raises complicated tradeoffs. Policymakers will need to balance two competing risks: on the one hand, a too hasty withdrawal of fiscal stimulus would risk nipping a recovery in the bud; on the other hand, with a delayed withdrawal investor concerns about sustainability may increase, leading to higher interest rates on government paper, undermining the recovery and increasing risks of a snowballing of debt. Regardless of the timing of adjustment, its necessary scale will be quite large, particularly for high-debt advanced economies. Preserving investor confidence in government solvency is key to avoiding an increase in interest rates, thereby not only preventing snowballing debt dynamics, but also ensuring that the fiscal stimulus is effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Mark A Horton & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar, 2009. "The State of Public Finances: A Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/021, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfspn:2009/021
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Serhan Cevik, 2019. "Policy coordination in fiscal federalism: drawing lessons from the Dubai debt crisis," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(5), pages 899-915, April.
    2. Fabian Gunzinger & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "It's Politics, Stupid! Political Constraints Determined Governments' Reactions to the Great Recession," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 584-603, November.
    3. Rajiv Kumar & Alamuru Soumya, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Issues for India after the Global Financial Crisis (2008–2010)," Working Papers id:2912, eSocialSciences.
    4. Gooptu, Sudarshan & Braga, Carlos, 2010. "Debt Management: Now the Difficult Part," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 23, pages 1-5, July.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5," IMF Working Papers 2010/252, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2013. "Multilateral Economic Cooperation and the International Transmission of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 257-297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ponomarenko, Alexey A. & Vlasov, Sergey A., 2010. "Russian fiscal policy during the financial crisis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2010, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "A Global View On Demographic Pressure And Labour Market Participation," Journal of Global Economy, Research Centre for Social Sciences,Mumbai, India, vol. 8(2), pages 165-194, June.
    9. Ponomarenko, Alexey A. & Vlasov, Sergey A., 2010. "Russian fiscal policy during the financial crisis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Andres Frick & Michael Graff & Jochen Hartwig & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012. "Are there free rides out of a recession? The case of Switzerland," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 27-45, January.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/112, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Carlos Caceres & Serhan Cevik & Ricardo Fenochietto & Borja Gracia, 2015. "The Day After Tomorrow: Designing an Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Libya," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(4), pages 32-50, June.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2010_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Fabian Bornhorst & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Ms. Elsa Sze, 2010. "Public Capital and Growth," IMF Working Papers 2010/175, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Vlasov, S. & Ponomarenko, A., 2010. "The Role of Budget Policy under the Financial and Economic Crisis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 7, pages 111-133.
    16. Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2010. "Restoring Debt Sustainability After Crises: Implications for the Fiscal Mix," IMF Working Papers 2010/232, International Monetary Fund.

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