Lessons from Massive Floods of 2006 in Surat City: A framework for Application of MS/OR Techniques to Improve Dam Management to Prevent Flood

In the month of August 2006, a massive flood in the city of Surat caused major human tragedy and property damage estimated at Rs 22,000 crore. Floods also lead to loss of human and animal life and threat of epidemic. The flood of 2006 was the 3rd major flood since 1994, when plague epidemic broke out in Surat after similar flood. Given the repeated floods in Surat policy makers, administrators, experts and people have to rethink about how to improve dam management to reduce the risk floods. With global warming the risks of extreme weather events will also increase. Given this situation we have tried to analyse the available literature and evidence, including ‘People’s Committee on Gujarat Flood 2006: A Report’, about how Ukai dam was managed during the flood of August 2006 in Surat. This analysis shows that Ukai dam is still being managed using static “Rule Book” originally developed in the 1970s. No modern OR/MS techniques or computer based modeling is used in dam management to reduce risk of flooding. Based on this analysis of the floods and dam management practices we develop a conceptual framework for a Decision Support System using simple modeling of Tapi River and Ukai dam using basic of MS/OR techniques. We have identified more than 18 parameters which should be used for such DSS to minimize risks of flooding and risk of lack of irrigation water in summer. Given that India is a world leader in computer software it should not be difficult or expensive to develop a computerized model of the dam system which will enhance the capacity to balance various risks involved in the dam management. We discuss what needs to be done in public management to develop and apply such DSS in major dams in rivers.