Agriculture - The Next Decade

For the coming decade the demand for food and non-food agricultural commodities would warrant a rate of growth of 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent per annum in agricultural production. At the end of 1980s, it is likely that the demand for foodgrains would be in the range of 170 to 180 million tonnes. Even with 4 per cent per annum growth in agricultural sector, we will have 30 per cent of rural households below poverty-line in the year 2000. If the present structure of holdings continue any increase in production above 2.9 to 3 per cent per annum will result in a glut, in spite of the fact that food and fibre requirements of a large number of households will go unsatiated. Increase in agricultural productivity, in the restricted sense of increasing the output of crop, is not a complete solution to this problem because of the initially low production base of the bulk of the farmers. For a majority of small farmers supplementary occupations, which produce high value products and at the same time are labour intensive, provide a feasible alternative. The success of such a strategy basically hinges on two preconditions a) the creation of infrastructure facilities in the countryside, and organizing homogeneous groups of producers, particularly small producers, to impart them the requisite strength to interact with the delivery systems in a meaningful way. The coming decade will test our capacity to move in these directions.