Growth Foodgrains Production in India, 1960-61 to 1975-76: Sources of Growth and Future Prospects

This paper focuses on growth in foodgrains (FGs) production in India between 1960-61 and 1975-76. To understand the sources of this growth, we have scrutinized year to year changes in FGs production, estimated the relative importance of changes in area and per hectare yield of FGs in causing these changes, and examined the extent to which the annual changes in FGs production and yield were “systematically” associated with changes in irrigation levels, spread of HYVs and consumption of fertilizers. The four most important conclusions of the paper are as follows: First, not only was the growth rate of FGs production over the 15-year period very modest but the trend was quite unsteady and halting. Second, changes in average yield rather than in area under FGs were the prime determinant of both overall growth and year to year changes in FGs production. Third, notwithstanding the dominant influence of weather conditions, the magnitudes of year to year changes in yield were systematically and significantly associated with changes in irrigated areas under FGs, spread of HYVs of FGs and fertilizer consumption taken together. And fourth, much of the scope for further spread of currently available HYVs of FGs on areas which are already irrigated is already exhausted. This is also true for sizeable growth in fertilizer consumption year after year. Consequently, the prospects of rapid and sustained growth in FGs production depend on vigorous policy measures based on the correct understanding of the urgency and major complexities of the problem.