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Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Intolerance, and the “First White President”

Author

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  • Marcus Noland

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

In 2016, the United States elected an avowedly protectionist president. This paper uses US county-level electoral data to examine this outcome. The hypothesis that support for protectionism was purely a response to globalization is rejected. Exposure to trade competition encouraged a shift to the Republican candidate, but this effect is mediated by race, diversity, education, and age. If the turn toward protectionism is due to economic dislocation, then public policy interventions could mitigate the impact and support the reestablishment of a political consensus for open trade. If, however, the drivers are identity or cultural values, then the scope for constructive policy intervention is unclear.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Noland, 2019. "Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Intolerance, and the “First White President”," Working Paper Series WP19-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp19-10
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China shock; Donald Trump; globalization; protectionism; sociotropic voting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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