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Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk

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  • Cullen S. Hendrix

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

The nature and magnitude of geopolitical risk is changing more rapidly than the ability to anticipate it, with increasingly severe economic consequences. This Policy Brief discusses the economic costs and risks associated with episodes of political instability, arguing that firms, government agencies, and international institutions must update their forecasting and risk assessment efforts to take global factors into account. Since the global financial crisis, political instability has shifted from emerging-market countries in the developing world to larger, more globally impactful econo¬mies. Acknowledging this changing risk profile—and developing better tools to predict major episodes of instability—will allow both policymakers and firms to plan with greater confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Cullen S. Hendrix, 2019. "Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk," Policy Briefs PB19-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb19-10
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    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/keeping-future-upgrading-forecasts-political-instability-and-geopolitical
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    Cited by:

    1. Layal Mansour-Ichrakieh, 2021. "The Impact of Israeli and Saudi Arabian Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal, 2020. "The impact of Israeli Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market: A Destabilizer Multiplier," MPRA Paper 99376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Shihai Wu & Yili Zhang & Jianzhong Yan, 2022. "Comprehensive Assessment of Geopolitical Risk in the Himalayan Region Based on the Grid Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-20, August.

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