Monetary policy implications of the dependence of long term interest rates on disagreement about macroeconomic forecasts
AbstractRecent studies show that disagreement regarding the future evolution of activity, inflation, or long and short interest rates, significantly forecasts holding excess returns. These studies include the papers of Buraschi and Whelan (2012), Barillas and Nimark (2012), Xiong and Yan (2010), Wu (2009) Such results challenge the common view that, under the expectations hypothesis of the term structure, the excess holding return should be unpredictable. The new evidence thus means that the risk premium is time-varying, moving as a function of disagreement. It is useful to discuss the potential implications of such theoretical results and empirical evidence on related monetary policy issues.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IESEG School of Management in its series Working Papers with number 2012-ECO-13.
Length: 6 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-10-20 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2012-10-20 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-10-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-10-20 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monika Marin).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.