Sustainabilitas Defisit Transaksi Berjalan Perekonomian Indonesia

Before the crisis of 1997/1998, Current Account Deficit (CAD) had been the norm in Indonesia’s economy. Post 1997, in general, its current account recorded surpluses. However since the last quarter of 2011 CAD reemerged, raising concerns among policy makers and observers. This paper contains an empirical investigation of the sustainability of current account in Indonesia. Quarterly data 1970-2012 is used in this research using ARDL model to investigate whether current account deficit Indonesia is persistent or temporary. This research finds that Indonesia current account deficit is sustainable in the short-term as well as in the long-term. In the short-term such deficit could be financed by surplus in the capital and financial account. However, such protracted deficit could weigh on the economy in the longterm, as it will lead to increasing liabilities to the rest of the world which needs to be paid back. In addition, it could face the availability of foreign financing due to market imperfections. Therefore at least in the short terms, authorities should maintain market confidence as it will ensure the smooth flow of capital and financial account needed to finance the deficit.