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Bounded Price Variation, Rational Expectations, and Endogenous Switching in the U.S. Corn Market

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Author Info
Matthew T. Holt
Stanley R. Johnson

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Abstract

A method for estimating bounded price variation models with rational expectations which incorporates all information implied by rationality is applied to a model of the U.S. corn market. The results indicate that the estimated model performs at least as well as a traditional equilibrium model with naive expectations.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University in its series Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications with number 88-wp28.

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Date of creation: May 1988
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Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:88-wp28

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  1. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "A Note on a Fair and Jaffee Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(4), pages 759-62, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-85, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Askari, Hossein & Cummings, John Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Agricultural Supply Response with the Nerlove Model: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 257-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fair, Ray C & Kelejian, Harry H, 1974. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(1), pages 177-90, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-30, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Goodwin, Thomas H & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1982. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in an Agricultural Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 658-67, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Maddala, G S, 1983. "Methods of Estimation for Models of Markets with Bounded Price Variation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(2), pages 361-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Rational Expectations, Econometric Exogeneity, and Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 673-700, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Baxter, Nevins D & Cragg, John G, 1970. "Corporate Choice Among Long-Term Financing Instruments," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(3), pages 225-35, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Garcia, Rene, 1977. "Disequilibrium Econometrics for Business Loans," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1187-1204, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rosen, Harvey S & Quandt, Richard E, 1978. "Estimation of a Disequilibrium Aggregate Labor Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(3), pages 371-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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