Die Folgen des Kriegs in der Ukraine und der Energiekrise für den Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland auf regionaler Ebene

"This research report describes the medium- and long-term impacts of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis for 34 labour market regions in Germany. To this end, the scenarios from the corresponding analysis for all Germany have been regionalised. A comparison of the regionalised scenarios illustrates the possible impacts of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis on regional labour markets in Germany. A medium-term scenario by 2026 and a longer-term scenario by 2030 are calculated. In addition, the impacts of an aggravated energy crisis on the number of employed persons in the regions are considered. In this scenario a doubling of the previously assumed price increase is expected. The war of aggression on Ukraine has caused great refugee movements, already now resulting in a higher population growth in all German labour market regions. In relative terms, the total population increases strongest in the regions Rostock, Hannover and Kassel by 2026 and 2030. The higher population size in turn leads to an increase in the labour force in all labour market regions. In the long-term, this growing labour force potential results in a higher number of employed persons than in the alternative scenario “Peace in Europe”. In the medium-term however, the number of employed persons is lower in 2026 in all labour market regions in comparison to the alternative scenario due to the overall weaker economic situation. The strongest relative decline is being expected for the regions Münster/Osnabrück, Bremen and Ravensburg. In the long-term, the number of employed persons is higher in most labour market regions in comparison to the alternative scenario “Peace in Europe”. However, the regions Ravensburg, Münster/Osnabrück and Neubrandenburg continue to be affected negatively and with the strongest relative decline. Job reductions in all regions are largely attributed to accommodation and food service activities, manufacturing of machinery and equipment and land transport. Most regions also face job reductions in retail trade and the construction sector. The reductions in the respective industries and service sectors are due to higher energy prices, the resulting increase in the general price level and lower consumer spending. Depending on the region and regional economic structures, the reductions vary in size. On the other hand, additional jobs are being created in the educational sector, in public administration, defence and compulsory social security and the health sector. Job creation in these sectors is due to population growth, its demographics and additional government spending. If the energy crisis aggravates and the previously assumed energy prices were to double once again, the impacts on the labour market regions would be much more negative. In particular, regions with a high proportion of energy-intensive industries would carry an additional burden. Negative impacts are to be expected especially for the north-western regions. Employment numbers would then remain lower than in the alternative scenario “Peace in Europe” even in the long term." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))